After Trump's tariffs, Polymarket predicts a 50% chance of a U.S. recession.

 

"U.S. Faces Recession Risk as Markets Predict Nearly 50%"

"Liberation Day" Tariffs Shake the Economy

The U.S. financial markets are in turmoil following President Trump’s decision to impose "Liberation Day" tariffs, prompting Polymarket, a financial prediction platform, to raise its recession warning to nearly 50%.


This Move Sparks Market Panic as U.S. Trade Partners Face a Minimum 10% Tariff

The decision has triggered widespread market anxiety as all U.S. trade partners are now subjected to a minimum 10% tariff—significantly higher than previous estimates.

Financial markets reacted negatively almost immediately.

Stocks plunged, while Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumbled as investor confidence eroded.

The situation worsened when reports surfaced that portions of the tariff order appeared to have been copied from Wikipedia, raising serious concerns about the policy’s credibility.

The World Reshapes Global Trade

Even if the U.S. adjusts its tariff policy, trust has already been damaged. Major economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea, are restructuring supply chains to reduce dependence on the U.S. These nations have begun forming a trade alliance to navigate the new economic landscape.

If this trend continues, America's influence in global trade may decline, increasing the likelihood of a deep recession.

The pressing question remains: Can Trump manage the fallout of his policies, or is this a turning point that will reshape the U.S. economy for years to come?

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